外商投资和贸易自由化的碳排放效应分析

本文选取我国30个省2000～2008年的面板数据,考察了外商直接投资以及外贸进出口量对我国碳排放的影响.研究结果表明,对全国大部分省市自治区而言,当期的外商直接投资和出口贸易对碳环境影响呈恶化作用,而滞后项的碳排放效应呈现清洁作用;当期的进口贸易对低碳经济的发展有促进作用,但滞后期抑制了低碳经济的有效进行.进一步对碳排放模型进行分区域分析后发现,我国碳排放的区域性差异较为明显,且东部地区的正动态性最大而中部的正动态性最小.文章最后分析产生这些结果的原因并提出了相应对策.     

太湖流域排污权交易制度框架设计

以行政区划为单元的水环境管理体制是造成太湖流域水污染加剧的重要原因之一。排污权交易制度是污染治理的有效手段,水环境的治理应该以流域为单元,充分利用市场机制配置水资源,构建覆盖整个流域的排污权交易市场。本文从法规政策、监测技术、市场潜力和试点经验等方面分析了太湖流域实施排污权交易的有利条件。在此基础上,构建了由排污权交易一级市场和二级市场组成的流域排污权交易制度。     

城市化对资源消耗和污染排放的影响分析

本文选取黑龙江、上海、河南、广东和甘肃等5个省份,采用1985-2009年平衡面板数据,利用STIRPAT模型,研究了不同发展水平下的城市化对资源消耗和污染排放的影响.主要结论为:人口规模、人均收入和经济结构都是影响环境的重要因素;总体上,城市化与资源消耗和污染排放都呈正相关关系,但从5个不同发展水平的省份来看,城市化...     

Did decimalization hurt institutional investors?

We examine institutional trading costs around the move to penny size ticks in 2001 (i.e., decimalization). We find that overall trading costs declined, with improvements in most partitions across order size, firm size, and manager style. Improvements were most pronounced for orders that were executed over multiple days and for stocks where the minimum tick sizes were likely to have been binding. However, costs did increase for orders executed within a single day. The improvements we document contrast with changes accompanying the reduction of minimum ticks to sixteenths in 1997 though, in both cases, results suggest that more patient traders fare relatively better than those that demand immediacy.     

论多边贸易体制下反倾销法与竞争政策的协调

WTO多边贸易体制下的反倾销法和竞争政策具有一致性,但也存在诸多冲突之处。国际社会对二者的协调提出三种方案,其中,以在《反倾销协议》中引入竞争政策的改良方案比较切合目前实际。但长远看,还是需要在WTO内建立一个协调各国竞争政策的法律框架和机制。当然,这最终取决于多边贸易体制的发展和各国实力的彼此角力。     

A logit model of retail investors' individual trading decisions and their relations to insider trades

Among the various external information sources that influence individual investors' trading decisions, no research has considered the important influence of insiders' transactions. Retail investors might copy the behavior demonstrated by insiders' trading; therefore, this study establishes an approach to estimate the buying probability for a certain stock by a certain investor at a certain point in time and analyzes whether insider trade reports influence this probability. Using a sample of more than 270,000 retail trades in Germany between 2008 and 2009, along with more than 3000 insider trades in the same period, we find evidence of copying of insiders' trades by retail investors. The basic mimicry hypothesis holds, even when we consider an information event hypothesis and an insider attention effect hypothesis as alternative explanations. A robustness test also supports the findings.     

市场交易与股票收益的非对称波动性

本文使用上海证券交易所新近发布的Level2逐笔统计数据分析了上海证券市场上的股票收益波动性的非对称性,并探讨了这种非对称的波动性与市场交易的关系。研究结论表明,在上海证券市场上,2008年1月到12月确实存在着波动性的非对称性,而且这种非对称性可以用卖出交易行为很好的解释,使用更为细致的对卖出交易的分类,我们发现反向交易行为降低波动性,羊群效应交易行为增加波动性,而基于内幕消息的羊群效应交易行为在上海市场上是知情交易。     

交易结构与交易估价浅论

对交易价格的评估,是当今收购兼并活动运用金融技术作为实务指导最为复杂的一个环节,运用现金流贴现法(DCF),在一定假设下获得估价区间,并以此作为衡量交易价格谈判的基础,是目前国际购并业务在实用理论方面讨论最多的热点领域。本文结合交易结构设计及类型确定,以贴现现金流估价模型为基础,探讨并购类型与整合效应的价值评估关系,及实证分析交易结构设计与并购估价的关联范畴。分析旨在讨论并购估价如何利用交易结构的不同设计使并购和约双方达到购并整合效果最大化。     

Classification of intraday S&P500 returns with a Random Forest

Stock markets can be interpreted to a certain extent as prediction markets, since they can incorporate and represent the different opinions of investors who disagree on the implications of the available information on past and expected events and trade on their beliefs in order to achieve profits. Many forecast models have been developed for predicting the future state of stock markets, with the aim of using this knowledge in a trading strategy. This paper interprets the classification of the S&P500 open-to-close returns as a four-class problem. We compare four trading strategies based on a random forest classifier to a buy-and-hold strategy. The results show that predicting the classes with higher absolute returns, ‘strong positive’ and ‘strong negative’, contributed the most to the trading strategies on average. This finding can help shed light on the way in which using additional event outcomes for the classification beyond a simple upward or downward movement can potentially improve a trading strategy.     

环境规制、融资约束与企业污染减排——来自排污费标准调整的证据

“十四五”规划提出建设人与自然和谐共生的现代化,这要求持续推进污染减排促进经济绿色低碳转型,实现环境与经济协同发展。基于2007年起排污费提高的政策冲击和2004-2013年工业企业污染数据,本文使用倍差法考察排污费提高的污染减排效果以及融资约束对政策效应的影响。研究发现排污费提高后,污染排放水平显著下降,但产出也受到较大冲击;企业减排方式存在明显差异,大型企业主要通过降低污染强度的方式来降低污染排放,而中小型企业则主要采取降低生产规模的方式来降低污染排放;进一步基于环境投融资角度对企业减排行为的分析揭示,融资约束影响中小企业污染减排,加剧排污费提高对产出的影响。因此,提高绿色金融的环境投融资供给能力是促进经济绿色转型的重要途径。